Tom Bradley of Los Angeles, nearing the end of his fifth term as mayor, decided to run for governor of America’s most populous state, California. Bradley was well-funded, and polls suggested he was on his way to an easy win. Bradley’s opponent, George Deukmejian, was of Armenian descent, which wasn’t always considered white in America. But when running against the Black candidate Bradley, he was white enough. Bradley lost the race and went back to serving as mayor for another ten years.
During the polling process, many white voters didn’t want to seem racist when answering questions about who they were voting for. They said they were voting for Bradley, but they just couldn't do it in the privacy of the voting booth. This phenomenon, which also affected Virginian Doug Wilder, is called the Bradley Effect. Some believe it ended when Barack Obama was elected president twice. Those same people thought America was then “post-racial,” so we know what their opinion is worth.
There is little cause for concern that the Bradley effect will impact Kamala Harris. The people who won’t vote for Harris because of her ethnicity or gender aren’t afraid to be thought racist. They wear that claim like a badge of honor. Voters shout from the rooftops they won’t vote for Harris using thinly veiled excuses because overt racism still looks terrible. The point is nobody is pretending to vote for Harris that won’t.
On the other hand, in some circles, you must be seen as voting for Trump while you secretly despise him. Do you think it’s popular to stand up at a meeting of Young Republicans or the Heritage Foundation and say you aren’t voting for Trump? The never-Trump backlash is real; it cost Liz Cheney and Adam Kenzinger their political careers and could easily cost someone a job or opportunity for not being part of the Trump gang. Fitting in means you must promote his lies and offer vindication for his nefarious words and deeds. In the privacy of the voting booth, drop box, or vote-by-mail, many Republicans and Independents won’t be able to cast their vote for Donald J. Trump, though they may profess they did to anyone who will listen.
More people will indicate they voted for Trump than actually did, and the Bradley Effect will become known as the Trump Effect. History books not written by Ron DeSantis will diminish his presidency as an aberration, a hiccup, something to be forgotten. January 6th, however, will live forever as a reminder of how close America came to ending its experiment with democracy. The 2024 election, which is predicted by all pundits to be close, will be won by Harris in a landslide. Hundreds of Republicans have come out to endorse Harris and reject Trump. Just imagine how many are repulsed by Trump but won’t say so? We will see!
This post originally appeared on Medium and is edited and republished with author's permission. Read more of William Spivey's work on Medium. And if you dig his words, buy the man a coffee.